India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, and the US vice-president, JD Vance, have hailed “significant progress” in negotiations toward a bilateral trade agreement, a deal that could help India avoid sharp tariff hikes announced by President Donald Trump.
Vance, accompanied by second lady, Usha Vance, and their children – Ewan, Vivek and Mirabel – landed in the Indian capital earlier on Monday for a four-day visit combining high-level negotiations with family sightseeing. They were received at the airport by railways minister Ashwini Vaishnaw. Vance stood under a red canopy that shielded him from the blazing sun as soldiers saluted and a military band played the US anthem.
The upbeat assessment on prospects for a trade deal came after Modi and Vance held both one-on-one and delegation-level meetings at the prime minister’s official residence in New Delhi. Modi later hosted a dinner for Vance and his family at his residence.
With Trump’s 90-day pause on raising duties on Indian exports ticking down, negotiators on both sides are racing to finalise a limited trade deal before July, and a broader agreement by autumn. Tariffs will rise to a punishing 26% from a baseline 10% if no deal is reached.
While no formal agreements are expected this week, Vance’s visit lends political momentum to the talks and signals Washington’s intent to reach a deal. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who is in Washington this week, is pressing India’s case for a swift agreement.
The prime minister’s office said in a press release that the two leaders “welcomed the significant progress in the negotiations for a mutually beneficial India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement focused on the welfare of the people of the two countries”.
India has already reduced tariffs on some US goods, with further sweeping cuts expected. An agreement could involve Indian purchases of US-made Javelin missiles and Stryker vehicles, along with tariff concessions on more than half of India’s $41.8bn (£31.2bn) in US imports.
The US is India’s top trading partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $190bn (£142bn). In a goodwill visit paid by Modi to Washington in February following Trump’s return to the White House, the leaders pledged to more than double trade to $500bn (£374bn) – a “mega partnership”, as Modi described it.
Behind closed doors, talks have been progressing under a loose framework outlined during Modi’s Washington visit.
Modi and Vance also “welcomed efforts towards enhancing cooperation in energy, defence, strategic technologies”, according to the Indian statement.
There was no immediate US comment on the discussions, though the White House previously described the visit as focused on “shared economic and geopolitical priorities”.
Also in play are India’s hopes of attracting fresh investment from Elon Musk, who spoke to Modi over the weekend and said he may visit India later this year to discuss Tesla’s long-pending entry into the market of 1.45 billion people.
However, there is some domestic opposition to cutting tariffs. The All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS), the country’s oldest farmers’ union, has warned that trade liberalisation could devastate farm incomes, especially in the dairy sector. The AIKS, affiliated with India’s Communist party and claiming over 16 million members, has accused the US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, of “coercion” in pushing to include India’s heavily subsidised agriculture sector in the deal.
The Modi government is still mindful of the massive farmer protests in 2020–21 that forced the repeal of controversial farm laws.
Tensions are also flaring over student and H-1B visas, which are often granted to tech workers. The Indian Congress leader, Jairam Ramesh, cited US data showing that of 327 recent international student visa revocations, half involved Indian nationals. Ramesh warned of “growing fear and apprehension” among Indian students in the US.
Indians received 70% of all US H-1B visas last year, more than 200,000. Uncertainty over re-entry has prompted many to cancel visits home.
The Indian statement did not mention whether visa issues were raised with Vance. However, the ministry of external affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, said last week that “all relevant issues” would be discussed.
Modi also conveyed “warm greetings” to Trump and said he looked forward to the president’s visit to India later this year, according to the statement. Modi had invited Trump to attend the Quad Leadership Summit during his Washington trip. The security grouping – comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia – is seen as a key counterweight to China’s growing regional influence.
Modi and Vance also discussed regional and global developments and “called for dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward”, a phrase often used by New Delhi regarding the Ukraine-Russia war.
Though primarily a working visit, Vance’s trip includes a strong personal element. The family flew to Jaipur late Monday to tour royal palaces and visit the Taj Mahal. Officials said the “private component” reflects Usha Vance’s Indian roots – she was born in the US to Indian immigrants – and the family’s ties to India.
The Vance children wore traditional Indian outfits on their first day, when the family visited the sprawling Swaminarayan Akshardham Hindu temple and shopped for handicrafts in the capital. Modi gave the children peacock feathers – the peacock is India’s national bird.
Aside from sightseeing in Jaipur, Vance is scheduled to deliver a key policy speech on Tuesday in which he will address international issues. Vance’s time as vice-president has been marked by an assertive “America first” foreign policy. On a European tour, he stirred controversy by criticising allies’ defence spending. In March, during a stop in Greenland, he caused consternation by saying, “We have to have Greenland. It’s not a question of ‘Do you think we can do without it?’”
Meanwhile, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, has been on a charm offensive in south-east Asia, presenting Beijing as a steadier and more dependable economic partner than Washington.
